Abstract

We guess the outcome of your Venezuelan exodus for the Colombian labor industry. The economical and personal drama from inside the Venezuela caused among the most critical migratory exoduses during the previous years: more than 4 million Venezuelans remaining the country and close to 1.8 million arrived in Colombia. I show that an increase in step 1 p.p of work also provide due the newest migratory disperse brought about a drop into the hourly earnings in Colombia out of 0.4% and you can a negative effect of 0.step 1 p.p. on the work rates regarding low-skilled specialists. The latest lose during the wages was better for males, low-competent and informal gurus.

Addition

The brand new Venezuelan migratory exodus the most essential attacks of pressed migration around the world: in the cuatro.5 mil regarding Venezuelans remaining their nation and went somewhere else Footnote 1 (UNHCR 2019). The best destination for departing Venezuelan migrants was Colombia. Centered on authoritative analytics, there have been almost step one.8 million regarding Venezuelans located in Colombia in 2019, owing to the fresh Venezuelan financial and you can governmental drama, and that signifies an increase in the express from Venezuelans staying in Colombia prior to brand new national society regarding 0.07% for the 2015 to three.6% up to within the 2019.

So it tall episode of migration is short for problems so you can policymakers exactly who attempt to know and you will measure the potential economic and you can social outcomes of such a massive inflow of immigrants, particularly for server countries eg Colombia.

Within report, We mine new Venezuelan exodus in order to see the migratory episode’s impact on this new Colombian labor business. We implement a distinctions-in-variations strategy and conduct my studies from the considering the quantity of visibility all over Colombian divisions to that exogenous work supply amaze, before and after 2016 (we.age. 2013-2019). For the 2016 a life threatening and unanticipated migratory increase from Venezuelans to Colombia took place in the event the borders among them nations were reopened just after nearly per year away from closing.

My personal prices advise that the latest intensification of migratory disperse out-of Venezuelans beginning in mid-2016 produced a life threatening miss in the aggregate wages as well as in the new a job speed off lowest-skilled workers inside the Colombia. An increase in step 1 payment section (p.p.) of labor pool because of the inflow out of Venezuelans made a 0.4% reduced total of wages and you can a great 0.1 p.p. reduced total of a job getting lower-skilled gurus; which affect a career represent a decrease from 0.18% prior to the average a job speed of low-competent Colombian specialists inside 2015, up until the Venezuelan exodus. While i guess this type of outcomes to possess Colombian divisions located on the edging having Venezuela (La Guajira and Norte de- Santander), performance train that declines into the wages and you may employment for everyone workers were just as much as 10% and step 3.4 p.p. (a mediocre work), correspondingly, pursuing the border try lso are-launched.

To guess the outcome out-of migration throughout these a few border departments, I construct a control class using about three departments out-of Colombia that just weren’t firmly affected by immigration and you will showed, normally, equivalent manner with regards to work field parameters together with comparable socio-demographic attributes before the border re also-beginning. To include robustness to those overall performance, We apply a synthetic Handle Strategy and you will determine a similar variations-in-distinctions estimations offered other combos out of departments from Colombia just like the manage teams.

I also imagine heterogeneous consequences because of the gender, quantity of certification, work formality and you may considering if the everyone was natives or not. I find you to definitely, inside the aggregate, the fresh new devastation when you look at the earnings are high for men versus people and much more powerful to have lower-skilled pros. More over, the newest lowering of earnings are greater to have casual pros however, indeed there aren’t extremely important differences between residents and low-natives; the actual only real exception is that I’ve found a mathematically significant increase about informality rate certainly low-natives inside the Colombia.